Times they are a changin’

The political landscape is changing. Support for the government is at an all time low and the Taoiseach’s credibility is in the gutters. As Bob Dylan puts it, they had better start swimming or they’ll sink like a stone.

At a time of economic crisis, the country needs strong decisive action. Yet, Brian Cowen and his Fianna Fail colleagues persist in burying their heads in the sand.

The 2008 Budget could yet be remembered as the beginning of the end for Brian Cowen. In that defining moment when Brian Lenihan called for ‘patriotic action’, Fianna Fail was seen to have lost touch with its public.

The numerous u-turns performed to quell public anger had an even more negative impact. It highlighted the indecision and cowardice which is so prevalent within this government.

Admittedly, Fianna Fail and Brian Cowen have every right to be scared. The Offaly man risks going down as the most unpopular Taoiseach of all time and unless he improves rapidly, he risks dragging the party down with him.

If there was an election next week, Fianna Fail seats would fall like December snow. The party would be turfed out of office and be in a position from which, it might take years to recover from.

Just last May it seemed like all was rosy in the Fianna Fail garden. The Bertie controversy had been put to bed and Cowen’s transition to leader had gone as smoothly as could be hoped. However, once the dust settled on his elevation to the top job, Brian Cowen was found severely wanting.

The rejection of the Lisbon Treaty was the first sign of trouble followed by the budget from hell, the cervical cancer debacle, the FAS scandal, not to mention the continued degradation of our Health service.

The list of government failings is endless. And the Taoiseach’s standard response to criticism? An arrogant aggression which further alienates the public.

Fianna Fail is facing an apocalyptic scenario at next year’s Local Elections, one which could leave Cowen’s position untenable.

The soldiers of destiny are staring into the abyss. Instead of showing leadership to pull his party out of the doldrums, Cowen is now akin to a ball and chain weighing heavily around Fianna Fail’s neck.
However, they say “It’s an ill wind that blows nobody good” and that wind is certainly in the Fine Gael sails now.

The party now finds itself in the situation of being ahead of the old enemy. At last the country is being provided with the credible opposition for which so long we craved.

Buoyed by the opinion polls, the party is in the midst of preparing for next June’s local and European elections. And when it comes- a general election which it could surely win.

It’s a remarkable turnaround given that just over five years ago, Enda Kenny took charge of a party which appeared to have no future. When one considers what Kenny has done in the interim, the myth that the man lacks leadership is quickly dispelled.

In 2004, Kenny led the party to massive gains at the local elections to the extent they were basically neck and neck with Fianna Fail at that level.

The party also surpassed Fianna Fail at European level, taking five of the 13 MEP seats.

In the 2007 election, Fine Gael gained twenty seats. And if recent polls are to be believed, for the first time in history, Fine Gael is more popular amongst the electorate than Fianna Fail.

Kenny has assembled a serious frontbench team. In the three key areas of Health, Education and Finance, Fine Gael offers the substantial triumvirate of Dr James Reilly, Brian Hayes and Richard Bruton.

You see, the party is not about Enda Kenny as Father, Son and Holy trinity but about the sum of their parts. When you look at the government benches and the wreckage created by messr’s Harney, O’ Keefe and Lenihan, there is considerably less confidence.

For the first time since the days of Garret Fitzgerald, Fine Gael is a united party. Despite polls showing Richard Bruton as a preferred leader, there is no hint of a leadership challenge.

The disloyalty shown to good party men like Alan Dukes and John Bruton eventually culminated in the 2002 wipe-out. Enda may not be the man for rousing speeches but that does not dent the party faithfuls’ admiration and affection. They know he pulled them back from the brink in 2002.

And they know when the next election arrives, they are favourites to win. And win in a way we have not seen for a generation.

The recent poll results are not just good for Fine Gael. They are good for the democratic system. Ireland needs a strong alternative government.

The PDs have departed the political scene. The Greens will learn soon enough what the electoral price is for doing a deal with the devil. That could herald a return to the traditional two and a half party system.

With Fianna Fail stocks plummeting, that would almost certainly mean a Fine Gael – Labour coalition. And, Enda Kenny – Taoiseach.